Posted by: Michael Disabato
After too many years to remember, and more changing of owners and management than I care about, Palm is finally releasing a new handset based on a new operating system. The press has had a lot of favorable comment, including "iPhone killer." I'm here to tell you that's ludicrous and why the Pre, and Palm, are destined for less success than everyone thinks.
First, it's the software, stupid! Palm used to have 15,000 - 20,000 developers writing really good code for the Palm OS. When Palm abandoned that, they abandoned them, and many have moved on to other projects like iPhone, Android, and Windows Mobile. It will be hard to convince them to come back to a new OS requiring new skills and investment during these economic times.
Second, there is the uncertainty of Palm's future. The company has been sold and handed around several times in the last few years, with no clear indication of its solvency or direction. No clearer indication of this could be had by seeing that Palm's last Windows Mobile device was shunned by all the mobile operators and ended up being sold directly by Palm to customers as an unlocked device with no subsidies.
Lastly, the Pre is a CDMA device with exclusivity on Sprint. If you wanted to find a smaller network that is in trouble or about to be acquired, I don't know where you'd look. Sprint's problems with ClearWire, and their insistence on sticking with WiMAX for voice (say what??) is making subscribers think twice about it's future. I don't know... Maybe Palm could not find any GSM takers for Pre, but without a GSM handset in the offing. you have a marginalized handset maker on the edge of oblivion partnered with a marginalized carrier who may be joining them.
iPhone killer? Gimme a break. The thing will be lucky to survive.
Michael
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