Posted by Michael Disabato
In his paper, “Mobile WiMAX: Why the Fuss?,” NTS Research Director Paul DeBeasi downplayed the significance of WiMAX as a 4G development. In spite of Sprint/Clearwire’s efforts, I agree with him and still think WiMAX will be a niche player in the 4G market. One need only look at the number of GSM phones that are backward compatible with the standard and the potential for upgrades moving forward. Evidently Cisco now agrees, as they have announced it will stop designing and building new WiMAX base stations, instead focusing on the packet core network. This means the $330 million acquisition of Navini Networks in 2007 has been shelved for now, perhaps for good.
The radio network was never where the money was anyway, since the choice of physical layer was all but mooted after the last, large CDMA network operator (Verizon) decided on LTE for its 4G network. However, 4G (LTE and WiMAX) us a packet network for the core instead of circuit switching, and Cisco is the market leader in packet networks.
Over time, your handheld, smartphone, tablet, whatever will be and IP terminal running IP-based apps, including VoIP. Since WiFi and GSM-based networks are MUCH more prevalent than WiMAX, those two will survive, and WiMAX will fade.
We’ll be covering this and other mobility subjects at Catalyst Europe. If you have not signed up for this, go here and register. We have an excellent agenda over a full day to discuss everything from wireless developments to policy considerations. See you there!
Michael
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